Gold Price Madness: Why Gold Is Set to Shatter Records

Why Gold Still Rules the World

From ancient civilizations who revered it as divine, to central banks stockpiling it as insurance—gold has always had a unique allure. It’s not just a shiny metal. It’s an emotional hedge, a financial shield, and a timeless asset. With the world becoming more uncertain, many are asking: Is gold still worth it? Will its price continue to rise? Or is the glitter fading?

Why Gold Is Set to Shatter Records

Gold is more than a yellow metal in India—it’s memory, safety, culture, and wealth. In 2025, gold skyrocketed nearly 28%, reaching close to ₹1 lakh per 10 grams—a dramatic surge unseen in years. Yet behind the glitter lies uncertainty: will it climb higher, crash back, or consolidate?

This article looks into the following:

• Gold Market
• Gold’s Historical Role
• Why gold soared in 2025
• What analysts predict through 2030
• How demand—especially in India—has shifted
• Smart investment vehicles and strategies
• Risks to watch in the golden storyline

Gold Through the Ages

Gold has survived empires, revolutions, and recessions. Its journey includes:

• Ancient Egypt: Gold was seen as the "flesh of the gods."
• Roman Empire: Used as currency, symbolizing stability.
• Bretton Woods (1944): Tied the global monetary system to gold.
• 1971: U.S. ends gold standard—gold starts floating freely.

Despite policy shifts, gold’s symbolic and monetary value has endured.

How Gold Prices Work: Key Influencers Today

Gold isn’t just about demand and supply. Several macro factors impact its price:

1. Inflation and Currency Devaluation

When inflation rises or currencies lose value, people turn to gold. It's perceived as a "real" asset unaffected by printing presses.

2. Geopolitical Tensions

Wars, sanctions, and political instability make investors nervous. Gold is seen as a safe haven, driving demand.

3. Central Bank Actions

Governments globally (especially in Asia) are buying more gold to hedge against USD risk.

4. Interest Rates

Gold has no yield. So when interest rates rise, gold demand can drop. But during recessionary or uncertain times, gold tends to regain favor.

5. Dollar Strength

A strong dollar usually weakens gold prices, and vice versa.

Gold Price Trends: What the Data Tells Us

• 2020-2021: COVID-19 pushed gold to record highs (~₹56,000/10g in India)
• 2022-2023: Gold remained resilient, closing around ₹60,000 amid rate hikes
• 2024: Price rallied further due to inflation fears, geopolitical tension (Russia-Ukraine, Middle East)

As of August 2025, gold hovers between ₹72,000–₹75,000/10g in India, and around $2,300–$2,400/oz globally.

Gold Price Explosion: What’s Driving the Surge?

Global Safe-Haven Demand

A slump in U.S. equities, rising tariffs, and geopolitical tensions pushed investors toward gold. In early August 2025, gold hit $3,400 per ounce after equity markets fell sharply, signaling renewed hedge demand. 

• Industry giants like Goldman Sachs and UBS have raised forecasts: Goldman sees gold reaching $3,650–$3,950/oz by end-2025; UBS is eyeing $2,900–$3,200/oz by 2026.

Indian Realities: Prices Near ₹1 Lakh

MCX futures soared to ₹100,555 per 10 g by July 2025 before a brief dip below ₹98,500 showing investor caution. Analysts flag consolidation in the near‑term but expect further swings as macro cues evolve.

Decline in Jewellery Demand, Rise in ETFs

As prices rose, jewellery enthusiasts pulled back. India’s gold demand is projected to hit a five‑year low in 2025 (600–700 tonnes vs 802.8 tonnes in 2024), driven by falling jewellery off‑take—even as investment demand rose 7% in Q2.

Why Gold Might Dip: Is the Bull Run Overdone?

Profit Booking & Volatility

Profit‑taking has driven gold down ~₹309 per 10 g on MCX in a couple of days, fuelling speculation of further downside. Writers warn global cues and interest rate policies suggest caution; gold may stay under ₹1 lakh for now 

Jewellery Sales Drop Dramatically

Sky‑high prices prompted many in India to cancel wedding bookings or sell old ornaments instead of buying fresh—further dampening jewellery demand.

Expert Predictions: How High Could Gold Go?

India: ₹1.10 Lakh by Mid‑2026?

ET and other outlets suggest gold could breach ₹1.10 lakh per 10 g within a year, driven by geopolitical uncertainty and global ETF inflows

Global Forecasts

·       Goldman Sachs: $3,650–$3,950/oz by end-2025; if recession intensifies, gold may hit $3,880/oz.

·       UBS: Maintains an $2,900/oz target for 2026, and sees potential to $3,200 if macro risk persists.

Longer-Term Outlook to 2030

Models suggest average annual growth of 8% (stable scenario) or up to 15% (bullish) through 2030-putting 24 K gold around ₹1.25–₹1.5 lakh per 10 g by 2028–30 if inflation or crises hit hard.

Gold in India - Demand Trends & Cultural Pull

Jewellery vs Investment Demand

Despite a downturn in jewellery purchases in 2025, digital gold and gold ETF inflows surged - especially among millennials exploring small‑ticket purchases via apps.

Inflation & Currency Volatility

Persistent inflation and rupee depreciation against the dollar make gold attractive as a hedge-particularly in India where culture and trust run deep.

Policy & Regulatory Factors

Custom duties and GST structures impact physical gold prices. After 2024, import duty dropped from 15% to 6%, making physical gold slightly cheaper than before.

Smart Ways to Invest in Gold

Physical Gold (Jewellery & Bars)

Pros: Tangible asset, emotional value, and cultural relevance
Cons: Making charges, storage risk, illiquid resale, GST on jewellery

Sovereign Gold Bonds (SGBs)

·       Issued by RBI on behalf of Government

·       Fixed interest of 2.5% p.a. over an 8‑year tenure

·       Tax‑free capital gains if held to maturity

·       Scheme discontinued post‑February 2024, but existing bonds remain valid.

Gold ETFs & Digital Gold

·       Lower transaction costs, no GST/making charges

·       Fully liquid, purchase via apps like Paytm or through stock market

·       Prime choice for small investors and diversification

Smart Strategies for Gold Investors

Rule of Thumb: Buy During Dips

Wait for dips under ₹98,000–₹99,000 per 10 g and buy gradually. Many analysts suggest the momentum may pause before resuming upward.

Diversify Your Gold Basket

Mix physical gold, SGBs (if held), digital gold, and ETFs. Each provides liquidity, tax treatment, or emotional value in different ways.

Monitor Macro Cues

·       Fed rate cuts or hold decisions

·       Dollar‑INR swings

·       Global inflation readings

·       Seasonal demand cycles (e.g. festival and wedding seasons)

Evaluate Your Time Horizon

If investing long term (3–5 years), remain weighted to investment vehicles. Short‑term traders should watch volatility carefully.

Gold Outlook at a Glance

Factor	2025–2026 Outlook
Major Support Drivers	Inflation Hedge, Investor Safe-Haven Demand, Etfs
Near‑Term Trading Range	₹98,000–₹101,000 Per 10 G
Year‑End Price Target	₹1,10,000–₹1,15,000 Per 10 G
Global Forecast	$3,650–$3,950/Oz (Goldman); $2,900–$3,200 (UBS)
Long‑Term (2030)	₹1.25–₹1.50 Lakh Per 10 G Potential (Bull Case)
Jewellery Demand	Weak In 2025; May Rebound Only If Prices Fall
Investment Vehicles	Sgbs (Legacy), Gold Etfs, Digital Gold Preferred
Primary Risk Factors	Fed Policy Tighten, Rupee Strength, Duty Hikes

Risks Ahead: Why Gold May Drop

·     Central bank rate hikes could reduce gold’s appeal vs fixed income

·     Fed policy tightening may strengthen the dollar, pressuring gold upward

·     Import duty changes could impact domestic physical prices

·     Weak jewellery demand continues to drag retail consumption

Gold’s Timeless Allure Still Shines Bright: Is Gold Still a Good Investment?

As we reflect on gold’s journey—from ancient temples to modern trading floors—it becomes clear that gold isn’t just a commodity; it’s a cultural constant, a crisis hedge, and a symbol of wealth that transcends generations. Despite the volatility of global markets, rising inflation, and digital disruptions like cryptocurrencies, gold continues to stand tall as a store of value. Whether you're a seasoned investor, a cautious saver, or someone just intrigued by the shimmer of precious metals, gold offers something solid—both literally and financially.

The future of gold might not be paved with explosive overnight gains, but its strength lies in reliability and resilience. As central banks keep buying, geopolitical tensions remain high, and economies dance around recession fears, gold will likely remain a cornerstone in diversified portfolios. The key isn’t to blindly chase gold, but to understand why it holds value and how it can work for your goals.

So, whether you're thinking about buying your first gram or diversifying your assets with ETFs or sovereign gold bonds, remember: gold isn’t just an investment. It’s a long-term relationship with history, economy, and peace of mind.

 

Delta Corp Ltd. and the GST Controversy: Future Prospects, Risks, and Investment Potential

Introduction

Delta Corp Ltd. is a well-known name in India's casino and gaming industry. With a significant presence in Goa, Sikkim, and Nepal, the company holds a unique position in a niche but growing market. However, since mid-2023, Delta Corp has found itself in the eye of a storm due to an enormous Goods and Services Tax (GST) demand by the Indian government. This dispute, currently under legal scrutiny, has raised serious questions about the company’s future, valuation, and investment potential.

In this comprehensive guide, we will explore:

• The GST controversy in detail

• Financial and business profile of Delta Corp

• Legal proceedings and current court status

• GGR vs. GBV: Understanding the tax debate

• Future stock prospects

• Investment considerations

Company Overview: Delta Corp Ltd.

Delta Corp is the only listed company in the Indian gaming and casino sector. It operates live casinos, online gaming platforms, and hospitality assets. Key business segments include:

• Casino Gaming: Physical casinos in Goa and Sikkim

• Online Gaming: Adda52 (rummy and poker), recently sold to focus on core operations

• Hospitality: Hotels and resorts attached to its casinos

Key Facts:

• Market Cap: ~₹3,000 crore (as of July 2025)

• P/E Ratio: ~9.7

• Dividend Yield: Recently increased (FY25 dividend of ₹1.25 per share)

• Business Strategy: Sharpening focus on high-margin core casino operation

The GST Dispute: What Happened?

The Background

Since the implementation of GST in July 2017, taxation of gaming and betting has been under scrutiny. Delta Corp was initially paying GST on its Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR), which is the actual income retained after paying out winnings to customers.

However, the government argued that GST should be levied on Gross Bet Value (GBV) — the total money wagered, not just the revenue kept by the company.

The Shocking GST Demand

From 2023 onwards, Delta Corp and its subsidiaries received retrospective GST demand notices totaling ₹33,500 crore, covering the years from 2017 to 2022.

Breakdown:

Entity	GST Demand (Approx.)
Delta Corp (Goa Jurisdiction)	₹16,822 crore
Subsidiaries	₹16,700 crore combined
Total	₹33,500 crore

Company’s Response

Delta Corp has challenged the demand in various High Courts, citing:

• Violation of constitutional rights (Articles 14 and 19(1)(g))

• Arbitrary and confiscatory nature of retrospective tax

• Global practices that tax only GGR, not GBV

Interim relief has been granted by the Bombay High Court and others, preventing final orders until the case is decided.

Legal Status: Where Do Things Stand Now?

Supreme Court Hearings

• The Supreme Court consolidated multiple similar cases from gaming firms, including Delta Corp.

• As of July 25, 2025, final hearings are expected to conclude.

• Judgment is likely to be reserved and delivered within weeks to a few months.

Possible Outcomes

• If Government wins: Full demand of ₹33,500 crore payable – existential risk for the company.

• If Delta Corp wins: Tax based on GGR, not GBV – major relief, stock likely to rally.

• Partial relief or settlement: Moderate liability and manageable payment terms.

GGR vs. GBV: The Core of the Dispute

What is GGR?

• Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) is the difference between bets placed and winnings paid to players.

• Represents actual revenue earned by the company.

What is GBV?

• Gross Bet Value (GBV) is the total amount wagered, regardless of whether it is retained by the company.

Delta Corp Argument

Delta argues that taxing GBV is irrational and inflates liability by over 8X. If GST is charged on GGR, Delta’s liability could be around ₹3,500 - ₹4,000 crore, rather than ₹33,500 crore.

Financial Analysis & Valuation

Financial Strength:

• Debt-free balance sheet

• Strong cash reserves

• Undervalued stock based on P/E and EV/EBITDA

Government’s Position: Strong on Law, Weak on Practicality

Strengths

• The government argues that 28% GST must be charged on the full bet amount (Gross Bet Value), not on the commission or revenue (Gross Gaming Revenue).

• Their stance is based on a strict legal interpretation of the GST law as it stood post-July 2017.

• They have already issued tax demands totalling ₹33,000+ crore to multiple companies, not just Delta Corp.

• The GST Council has supported this view with its July 2023 clarification and has amended the law in 2023, effective October 1, to explicitly tax the full face value.

Weaknesses

• The retrospective application of this interpretation is widely criticized—even by legal experts and former tax officials—as "confiscatory and unconstitutional."

• The approach is considered economically unviable, especially since gaming companies would owe more in taxes than they earned.

• Multiple High Courts have stayed final orders, which signals that the judiciary sees merit in the companies' petitions.

Delta Corp’s Position: Strong on Constitutionality & Global Precedent

Strengths

• Delta Corp argues that levying 28% GST on the total bet value (not just their commission) is absurd—as it taxes money that doesn't belong to them. 

• Their argument is supported by global tax standards, where gaming tax is typically levied on Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR). 

• Several courts (like Bombay HC) have already granted interim relief, staying the tax demands.

• The company is relying on constitutional grounds—that such taxation violates Article 14 (Right to Equality) and Article 19(1)(g) (Right to Trade).

Weaknesses

• Their position, while fair from an economic and business standpoint, contradicts the formal GST Council interpretation.

• The Supreme Court in some earlier gaming-related rulings has leaned towards a strict reading of “betting and gambling” being taxable.

Investor Outlook: Should You Invest?

Pros:

• Market leader in India’s casino industry

• Strong fundamentals and cash position

• High potential upside if legal outcome is favorable

• Solid dividend track record

Risks:

• GST liability could cripple finances if fully enforced

• Regulatory unpredictability in gaming sector

• Delays in court ruling could cause prolonged stock stagnation

Recommended For:

• Risk-tolerant investors who can wait for legal clarity

• Long-term investors looking for contrarian bets

• Not recommended for conservative or short-term traders at this stage

Conclusion

Delta Corp Ltd. stands at a critical legal and financial juncture. The outcome of the GST case will determine not just the company’s future, but also set a precedent for the entire Indian gaming sector. While the legal risk is significant, the investment upside is equally large for those willing to endure volatility.

If Delta wins or receives relief, expect a strong price rally and long-term upside. If not, it may require restructuring or even face existential threats. Therefore, conduct your own due diligence, consult with a financial advisor, and consider your own risk appetite before investing.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice.